France pushes offshore wind accelerator

• France was fourth-largest country by offshore wind installed in 2022
• EDF and Maple Power named winners in 1GW Normandy tender
• Government picks pre-qualified bidders in 2.5GW tender duo

France has long been an enigma in European offshore wind. So many renewables-friendly utilities, so much financial expertise, and yet so little progress offshore. We were not alone when we wondered in 2019 if offshore wind would ever take off in France.

Back then we chose to be positive and our optimism has proved well-founded. Last month, we got a glimpse of how far offshore wind has come in France over the last four years, but also an indication of some of the challenges that still lay ahead.

On 27^th March, the French Government’s Ministry of Energy Transition made three announcements related to the country’s offshore wind plans.

First, it revealed EDF Renewables and Maple Power have won the Centre Manche 1 tender to develop 1GW of offshore wind off the coast of Normandy, northern France. This is due to be commissioned in 2031, and the government highlighted innovations in the bid including recyclable blades, SME opportunities, and use of crowdfunding.

Second, it announced the pre-qualified bidders for two offshore wind tenders totalling 2.5GW: the 1GW Ile d’Oléron tender (A07) for a site off France’s Atlantic coast and a 1.5GW tender (A08) for a site off the coast of Normandy. The government intends to reveal the winners of the two tenders in early 2024, and pre-qualified bidders include EDF Renewables, Eni Plenitude, Iberdrola, Maple Power and Ocean Winds. You can see the full list by clicking here.

And third, it gave more information about a 250MW floating wind tender (A05) for a site off the coast of southern Brittany, where it is due to reveal full details this month. France won European Commission approval in February for €2.08bn of state aid for the project, and is scheduled to reveal a winner in the A05 tender later this year.

Agnès Pannier-Runacher, France’s Minister for Energy Transition, said accelerating the rollout of offshore wind in French waters was part of its commitment to renewable power that was confirmed in legislation on 10^th March. We can’t think of a time when the prospects for the expansion of offshore wind in France have looked this rosy.

Slow and steady

There is further evidence of France’s arrival in offshore wind in 2022 market statistics.

For example, France came fourth in the rankings of countries by how much offshore wind capacity they commissioned in 2022, behind China, the UK and Taiwan. This is due to the completion of the first utility-scale offshore wind farm in French waters in November: EDF and Enbridge’s 480MW Saint Nazaire project off the Atlantic coast.

France was also the fifth-largest nation by offshore wind capacity under construction at the end of 2022, which is made up of the 497MW Fécamp project by EDF, Enbridge and Skyborn Renewables; and the 496MW Saint Brieuc project by Iberdrola. Both are set to be commissioned this year.

And there are other projects in development or construction that are due to complete in the next few years, including EDF, Enbridge and Skyborn’s 496MW Calvados, which is due to be commissioned in 2024; and a trio of schemes by Ocean Winds (Dieppe & Le Tréport (496MW), Yeu & Noirmoutier (496MW), and Golfe de Lion (30MW) floating project), which are all scheduled to complete in 2025.

Further into the future there is EDF and Enbridge’s 600MW Dunkirk, where an investment decision is due in 2026.

This growing momentum in French offshore wind is the result of long-term planning by the government, which has given utilities the confidence to invest. Companies in the supply chain will also be enthused by the fact that the market looks set to avoid peaks and troughs in construction, although the pipeline from 2027 is less clear.

But we still have a few concerns.

First, there’s a risk that the industry is reliant on too few projects. Offshore wind in France looks set for stable growth as long as all of the planned projects progress smoothly to completion, but companies are always wise to expect the unexpected. Difficulties with one or two projects could prove significant for the sector.

Second, we question whether the government is moving fast enough to reach its target of 40GW installed offshore wind capacity in its waters by 2050, split across 50 projects. It still has 27 years, which should be plenty, but the government cannot stand still. It is also relying on floating wind achieving commercial maturity soon and, as we wrote last month, there is still some disagreement over how quickly that will happen.

And third, the offshore wind industry will want confidence that the government sees it as central to France’s future energy plans, alongside nuclear. Nuclear still accounts for two-thirds of the country’s electricity mix, and has been central in recent disputes between France and Germany in the European Union. But we can also see how the technologies complement each other: nuclear for onshore and wind for offshore. The potential links between offshore wind and hydrogen production are attractive too.

However, this feels like nit-picking.

The prospects for offshore wind off the French coast have improved immeasurably in the last four years, and we now have reason to believe that offshore wind in France is here to stay – as long as the government keeps its foot on the accelerator.