Marketwatch: Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey

Looking for your next lucrative wind power investment?

The smart money could soon begin flowing towards projects in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean as Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey look to substantially boost their wind power capacity.

Wind power in the three countries has the potential to be substantially scaled up. But the process will be far from straightforward. While ambitious targets have been set, the onus is on the nations' governments to put in place effective legislative frameworks that pave the way for significant wind power investment.

Bulgaria: Huge potential

The potential in Bulgaria, in particular, looks huge. The country is planning a fivefold increase in installed wind capacity between 2030 and 2050.

According to the country’s draft 'Sustainable Energy Strategy to 2030 with a horizon of 2050', Bulgaria’s installed capacity from wind will be approximately 950MW in 2030, which is slightly more than the existing levels.

But by 2050, the plan is for this to shoot up to 4.5GW. Such growth will largely take the form of offshore wind, which Bulgaria doesn't currently have.

Bulgaria’s plans to increase wind capacity are broadly in line with those at the Europe-wide level. European Union member countries currently have 12GW of installed offshore wind, but the target is 60GW by 2030.

But Bulgaria faces challenges if it is to grab a slice of Europe-wide growth. As the law firm CMS has highlighted: “Bulgaria will need to undertake significant legislative reforms in order to keep up with these ambitious plans.”

Greece: Untapped offshore capacity

Meanwhile, Greece is gearing up for a substantial increase in installed wind capacity. Proposals in the ‘National Energy and Climate Plan’ envisage a 75% increase in wind energy, up from 4GW today to 7GW by 2030.

All of Greece’s current capacity is onshore. Consequently, there is significant potential for offshore capacity that remains untapped.

Given Greece’s deep waters, it is anticipated that floating offshore wind will contribute most of the growth.

The Greek government is now planning a legislative framework for the development of offshore wind. The latest is that interested parties were recently given the opportunity to participate in a consultation being run by the Greek wind energy association ELETAEN.

It is vital the Greek government gets the framework right. Wind industry body WindEurope said that, to be effective, the framework should “consider defining an ambitious pipeline of projects and a schedule of auctions, ensuring stable revenues for projects via Contracts for Difference, investigating and allocating sites efficiently and offering financing for new infrastructure”.

Turkey: New support mechanism needed

Turkey is also seen as a significant source of untapped wind power potential.

The country offers ideal conditions for wind power installations, and a report published in 2020 by the Trade Council of Denmark in Istanbul said Turkey had 48GW of wind potential and an average wind speed of over 7m/s at 50m.

“There are large suitable and untapped areas especially in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions,” the report added.

But Turkey’s route to fully exploiting this opportunity is plagued by obstacles.

Successful offshore wind development, in particular, requires long-term planning and investment by stakeholders. Turkey's Renewable Energy Support Scheme (YEKDEM) has been credited with plotting the path of wind power development in the country. As of September 2020, a total of 818 renewable energy plants were benefiting from the YEKDEM scheme, with a total electricity generation capacity of approximately 82,500 GWh.

But the YEKDEM scheme ends this June.

The big question now is: what happens next? It’s unclear, but Hakan Yildirim, president of the Turkish Wind Energy Congress (TWEC), told the news agency Anadolu Agency that a new support mechanism is needed to create a more reliable and predictable market environment to benefit most business sectors and attract more wind energy investment in the country.

Verdict: There is clearly an appetite in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey for substantial wind industry investment. And Bulgaria, in particular, has very ambitious plans. But the respective governments need to get their next move right as the growth of the wind industry will be heavily dependent on vital legislative reforms, auction schedules and financing for infrastructure.

Until that happens, it will remain merely potential capacity, nothing more.