Poland throws developers into disarray

Onshore wind developers in Poland are used to punishing policies, but a late change last month to rules that were designed to unlock onshore wind projects is a cruel twist. It is also putting billions of euros of European Union investment at risk.

The Polish government has been looking to reverse a policy introduced in 2016 by the ruling Law & Justice Party (LJP) to restrict onshore wind in 98% of Poland.

The so-called ’10H rule’ specifies that wind turbines could only be located in areas that were a minimum of ten times their height from nearby homes or national parks. That is around 2,000 metres in practice. The result is that hardly any onshore wind capacity was built in Poland between 2016 and 2020, just as the pro-coal LJP wanted.

The situation has improved a little in recent years, as the government has given greater leeway for companies to develop any projects that gained permits before 2016. This led to 2GW of onshore wind completed in Poland between 2020 and 2022, and has taken the country’s installed capacity to 8GW. But much more could be done.

Last month, the government was discussing a draft law to change the setback rules to 500 metres, which is around a quarter of the typical distance under the 10H rule and would have made it far easier to build wind farms. However, the plan is now in doubt because Marek Suski, chairman of the parliamentary energy committee and member of the LJP, brought an amendment saying the setback distance should be 700 metres instead of 500 metres. This is a pretty transparent attempt to harm wind.

This may sound like a small issue, as 700 metres is still an improvement. But experts have warned this will severely limit investment in Polish wind. More than that, it is set to derail €35.4bn of grants from the European Union’s Recovery & Resilience Fund that were predicated on Poland showing greater support for renewables. It is an act of environmental and economic sabotage with elections looming this autumn.

A vote on the rule is due in the Polish parliament this week, with the Senate due to consider it within 30 days.

Polish problems

On 30^th January, A Word About Wind attended a webinar run by developer European Energy about the Polish renewables market. This includes analysis showing that there will be 75% less land for onshore wind with a 700 metre setback distance compared to 500 metres, and that could scupper at least 6GW of wind projects by 2030.

Olga Sypula, country manager for Poland at European Energy, said it would stop the construction of 70% of the wind projects in the firm's Polish portfolio. It would be the difference between 4GW and 10GW of new onshore wind by 2030, while the tougher setback rule would also significantly decrease interest in repowering work.

“We are sure 500 metres is a sufficient distance, and we are discussing new turbines and technologies that have less impact on the environment,” she said. This has also forced European Energy to focus its development in Poland on solar projects.

Trade association WindEurope has echoed the argument that any setback distance of over 500 metres would mean Poland struggles to meet its renewables targets and boost energy security: “The public acceptance for onshore wind in Poland is high, and the economic benefits are overwhelmingly clear. Poland would lose out badly if it messed up this opportunity,” said Giles Dickson, CEO at WindEurope.

Cristina Savescu, senior economist at the World Bank, told the European Energy webinar there is currently a deficit of private investment in Poland compared to other EU states, and it will only be bridged if Poland comes into greater alignment with the rest of the EU in areas including its support for decarbonisation.

World Bank research shows that $49bn would be invested in renewables in Poland until 2050 if the government continues on its current path, but it rises to $131bn in the same period if the government gets serious on decarbonisation.

“In that more ambitious scenario, we would have almost two-and-a-half times the investment needs,” said Savescu. She added that would require a fresh approach to planning and permitting, as well as investing in the grid and overhauling energy markets.

Wind developers and investors may rue this latest twist for Polish renewables, but it is the country as a whole that stands to lose.