South African utility Eskom is going through a period almost as dark as the coal it relies on.
The news that it last month commissioned the first 16MW of its first wind farm, the 100MW Sere scheme, is one bright spot. But let’s not fool ourselves into thinking this coal-addicted state-run utility is going to be developing wind farms across South Africa. It won’t.
Private developers will be the driving force in this fledgling wind market for years to come.
The situation at Eskom is dire. It is struggling to keep the lights on, and has warned key industrial users to cut energy use by 10% or more. The notion that industrial orders should try to reduce energy use in their operations is fair, but it has to be done in a planned and measured way. If not, the uncertainty of Eskom’s incessant make-do-and-mend approach will only harm the economy.
This is not just a modern problem. Eskom is being hampered by the lack of investment in South Africa’s energy infrastructure over the last 20 years; and its over-exposure to coal. The Sere project is one indication that it is starting to embrace other sources, but it would take a significant investment to develop a truly balanced system.
And Eskom does not have enough spare capital or time to invest in a large-scale wind farm development programme.
The utility said it has a funding gap of 225bn South African Rand(£12bn) over the next five years. This is partly due to the huge cost of upgrading South Africa’s energy network, including the new coal-fired power stations, Medupi and Kusile, which have total capacity of 9.6GW. They were due to finish this year but have been delayed.
The government has started a $2bn part-privatisation of some of its assets to help fill the gap. Businesses and householders will be forced to make up some of the rest in higher bills, but it won’t be a quick process. Eskom may even be privatised itself.
This gives a big opportunity for private firms. The 138MW Jeffreys Bay wind farm that was commissioned in June by Mainstream Renewable Power and Globeleq shows that South Africa is open to foreign investors. It is the country's first wind farm of any scale.
The government is supporting developers — both homegrown and overseas — through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). Western firms will see the appeal in an English-speaking nation that can be a starting point to grow in other African nations that desperately need energy.
And yet, this growth can only take hold if the government loosens local content rules. The third round of REIPPPP stipulates that at least 65% of parts must be made by local manufacturers but overseas investors will rightly doubt the abilities of local firms with little or no track record. Meanwhile, international manufacturers will question the wisdom of setting up in a country where they will be hampered by energy restrictions and blackouts.
It will therefore take a loosening of local content rules to kick start investment in South African wind. Until that happens the country will continue in its current curious paradox. That is, that Eskom is presiding over an energy crisis, but that turbine manufacturers are also nervous about setting up in a country where industrial users are suffering because of a problem of Eskom's making.
And, as for Eskom, it needs to recognise the growing potential of wind in helping secure South Africa's energy future. If it doesn't take advantage then private developers surely will.
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The UK’s 2015 general election is now exactly six months away. The vote on 7th May 2015 will be a key determining factor of what level of support the onshore wind industry in the UK enjoys.
If the Conservative Party wins an outright majority it has pledged an end to subsidies for onshore wind; and hostility would grow further if it ends up forming a coalition with the UK Independence Party.
On the other hand, wind may benefit if the Conservatives again enter a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, although relations are currently fractious. And what about a victory for the Labour Party? Frankly, at present, that doesn't look like a realistic option.
This means that organisations in the renewable energy sector are looking for ways to grow community support for new wind farms.
And one such idea came out on Monday from the so-called Shared Ownership Taskforce, which is a group of renewables bodies, on the idea that developers should offer local people the chance to buy stakes in schemes.
The logic goes that offering such stakes would help developers to gain more support for their schemes, meaning that more get developed; and that local communities would get a proportion of the financial benefit of the scheme.
The taskforce has recommended that the local community be given the opportunity to own between 5% and 25% of a scheme.
In principle, community ownership of wind farms is great. It gives residents a stake in the scheme and helps to quell the objections of nimbys. Community wind projects have been built in countries including Australia, Germany, the US — and, yes, even the UK.
But the detail may mean that this plan won’t achieve its aim.
For one thing, the taskforce has advised that locals be given the opportunity to buy a stake in the wind farm when the scheme has a good chance of gaining planning consent, so that they don’t lose their money. Fair enough.
But if a scheme already has a good chance of success then it seems strange to sell stakes in it in order to win local community support. By definition, if a scheme has a good chance of success then it already has the support of the community.
It's also questionable that offering a small stake in a wind farm, potentially even as small as £5, would help garner more support for wind farms. An estimated 70% of people in the UK are in favour of having a wind farm near them, and I don’t see how the chance of owning a small stake in one would win over the other 30%.
People don’t usually invest in things they don’t like, and this won’t win over those who froth at the mouth at the mention of turbines.
If anything, such a proposal might even make developers build less. There is less reason for the developer to go through the often tortuous process of winning planning consent for their scheme if they will only end up owning 75% of the completed scheme.
So will the taskforce achieve its stated aim of making this the new norm for UK onshore wind farm ownership during 2015? In our view, there's more chance of David Cameron hugging a turbine.
TRIG plans 250million share issue
London investor The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) has announced plans to issue up to 250million of new shares to support its investment plans.
The company is planning to use a share issue to raise funds to invest in onshore wind and solar. The plan depends on TRIG winning support at an extraordinary general meeting, which is due on 24 November.
TRIG said it is currently evaluating schemes with an estimated value of more than £200m. TRIG was launched in 2013 and has since invested in 27 wind and solar projects with a total capacity of 398MW.
Transmission Capital wins £308m OFTO
Ofgem has given Transmission Capital the right to own and operate the £308m offshore transmission link to the 270MW Lincs project.
The energy regulator yesterday gave TC Lincs OFTO Ltd the licence to run the link to the offshore wind farm, which is eight kilometres off Skegness on the east coast of England.
TC Lincs OFTO Ltd is owned by Transmission Capital Partners, which is a consortium of Transmission Capital Partners LP and International Public Partnerships. Lincs is the fifth OFTO licence awarded to Transmission Capital Partners.
Sinovel: De-listing likely in early 2015
Sinovel has said its stock is likely to be delisted from the Shanghai stock exchange as it is set to record a third straight annual loss.
The Chinese manufacturer last week reported that its third quarter loss had halved year-on-year to 150m yuan ($25m) because of stronger sales. However, in a statement to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it said that it still expected to make an annual loss in its full-year results due in early 2015.
The company has been dogged by problems with debt, low sales and project delays. It is also involved in legal disputes with US firm AMSC and China’s Huaneng Renewables.
Work starts on Lake Turkana grid link
Work has started on the transmission link for the 310MW Lake Turkana scheme in Kenya, which is Africa’s largest wind project.
The Kenya Electricity Transmission Company has started work on the 426km transmission line to connect the planned €625m wind farm to the grid. The 400kV transmission line is set to connect the project to the grid as Suswa, which is 80km northwest of Nairobi.
Construction on the 365-turbine wind farm is due to start next year, and is scheduled to complete in early 2017. It is set to provide around 15% of Kenya’s total power.
Ambienta closes €323.5m green fund
Private equity firm Ambienta has closed its Ambienta II fund after raising €323.5m, which has exceeded its target of €300m.
The investor plans to use the funds to back European firms in sectors including renewable energy. Its investee companies include FoundOcean, which provides construction services to offshore wind farms including Gwynt y Mor and West of Duddon Sands.
The investment firm has raised the funds from backers including the European Investment Fund, Generali, HarbourVest, Hermes, Pantheon, RobecoSAM, Stafford Capital Partners, Unigestion and Zurich Insurance Group.
Eleven percent. That’s the total amount of wind capacity in China that, last year, wasn't used. It was 20% in some northern provinces.
That smacks of a major grid issue. It also indicates a wider trend.
The rate of turbine installations in China has accelerated over recent years – with this Asian mega-market set to add as much as 20GW of capacity in 2015.
That’s almost twice as much new onshore power being developed in Europe, and more than three times as much as new installations in North America. Tellingly, it also means that China is adding in one year capacity equivalent to four times the total install base of Denmark, a pioneering nation in the rollout of wind.
And yet it’s not the domestic grid and transmission challenges that have been catching the attention of manufacturers and developers recently. It isn’t even the sheer size and scale of China’s current domestic installation base – 90GW by the end of 2014 – that’s grabbed the interest of the industry.
Rather, it’s the far more pressing issue of feed-in tariffs and government incentives that’s suddenly been pushed to the fore. With all this new capacity coming online, and with the aim to build out an installation base of 200GW by 2020 now underway, changes must be made in government financing.
For policy makers, this involves cutting tariffs to scale back growth in new construction. A tariff cut of 11% by the National Development & Reform Commission has been mooted, potentially coming into effect as soon as 30 June 2015.
As we’ve seen in Europe and the US that creates a funnel effect, accelerating short-term construction and exacerbating grid issues.
But the thing with China is that, given the size of the market, those effects won’t only be felt domestically. They’ll resonate globally.
To date, the Chinese manufacturing market has made a good play of focusing its efforts on export sales – and firms such as Goldwind and Envision have been quick to diversify away from the domestic market and, to a certain extent, de-risk themselves.
However Goldwind, China’s biggest turbine manufacturer, will account for at least 4GW of domestic installations in 2014. If those tariff cuts come into effect and the market dips, that’s a significant potential revenue drop.
The company this week reported that its full-year profit may quadruple year-on-year to $314m this year after orders rose. It is easy to imagine that reversing if orders fall. And this also means that the firm will undoubtedly look to mitigate against the impact of any subsidy cuts by refocusing on expansion overseas.
Over recent years, as the established markets of North America and Europe have peaked, manufacturers and developers have looked to emerging markets for growth. Competition from Chinese counterparts has, to a greater degree, been sparse.
With talk of a Chinese tariff cuts around the corner, just how much this dynamic will shift, as manufacturers looks to keep the factories busy, is a big unknown.
Trick or treat? We saw both at last week’s EU energy summit.
Last week, nations in the European Union agreed energy reduction targets for the years to 2030 at a summit in Brussels. This commits the EU to emissions cuts of 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels; and that 27% of energy should come from renewables by 2030.
The EU says these targets send a clear message to the world that Europe is serious about renewable energy — and should, to use the parlance of Halloween, be a treat for the wind sector. France's president Francois Hollande called them “conclusive and definitive”.
But we can’t help but feel this is more of a trick. These targets just aren't all that great. For one, they are only binding at EU-wide level and not on individual countries. The 27% target is also weaker than the 30% favoured by the European Council and bodies like EWEA.
And there is a “flexibility clause” that lets the European Council revisit the targets after the United Nations climate change summit in Paris in December 2015. A target that can be changed in a year’s time isn’t long-term and, frankly, isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
So the wind industry doesn’t gain much from these targets, but it does still gain from the EU summit.
The biggest treat was an agreement on energy interconnectivity, where EU leaders renewed their commitment to increasing energy trading via electricity connectors between countries to 10% by 2020, with an intention to increase that to 15% in future.
This may not seem significant, but it was a key part of the talks.
Let’s return to Hollande. He wants something substantial to come out of next year’s UN summit in Paris, so needed agreement on EU targets to discuss with the US and China.
But in order to reach that agreement on targets he had to cave in on energy trading.
You see, the French government is in a long-running dispute with Spain and Portugal over energy exports. Spain has a lot of excess wind power due to its financial crash, and wants to sell this to the rest of Europe. But France has rejected this because of the risks it says Spanish wind would pose to the nuclear power stations that provide 75% of French power.
The result is that France has been reluctant to grant consent for more interconnects at the France-Spain border in the Pyrenees. But Spain and Portugal threatened to veto the new targets at last week’s summit if they didn’t get an agreement on energy trading.
The result? The French simply had to back down for Hollande to get the deal he wanted.
What this all means for wind therefore, is pretty good. Operators across Europe have more chance to sell excess power to other countries; while any single country’s electricity grid need not be so reliant on the fluctuating domestic wind production..
This is the treat behind the trick.
Australian firm scraps 600MW giant
Australian state-run energy firm Hydro Tasmania has ditched plans for its 600MW wind farm TasWind.
The firm announced its proposal for the A$2bn ($1.8bn) scheme on King Island, Tasmania, in November 2012, but yesterday said the 200-turbine scheme was no longer economically viable.
Hydro Tasmania chief executive Steve Davy said its feasibility analysis showed that the scheme was not financially viable as a standalone project, even if Australia’s Renewable Energy Target was retained at its current level. He also said changing economic conditions had seen the estimated capital costs rise by $150m.
Samsung and Pattern secure C$580m
Samsung Renewable Energy and Pattern Energy have secured C$580m ($518m) for the 180MW Armow in Ontario, Canada.
The developers have announced the completion of a construction and term loan financing with ten financial institutions.
The scheme is set to comprise 91 Siemens 2.3MW turbines, and is scheduled to complete in the fourth quarter of 2015. It has a 20-year power purchase agreement with Ontario Power Authority.
Alevo plans $1bn US battery rollout
Swiss power storage group Alevo has revealed a $1bn plan for battery storage factory to expand the use of wind and solar power.
The business has bought a 3.5m sq ft factory in North Carolina, formerly used by cigarette maker Philip Morris International, for $68.5m. It plans to use the factory to manufacture battery storage systems that can store up to 2MW; and is seeking to export its first GridBank battery system in mid-2015.
Alevo has said it plan to spend up to $1bn to develop a system that could get rid of waste from the grid and expand the use of wind and solar power. The project is a joint venture with Chinese state-owned China-ZK International Energy Investment Co.
Contour buys 161MW in Austria
US investor Contour Global has agreed a deal with Raiffeisen Banking Group to buy eight wind farms in Austria totalling 161MW.
The firm has agreed to buy the projects from affiliates of Raiffeisen as part of a 201MW deal, which includes 40MW of operational solar farms in Czech Republic and Slovakia, for an undisclosed sum.
The deal complements Contour Global’s 1.4GW of renewables businesses in South America, Europe and Africa. The company's
portfolio in eastern Europe includes schemes in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine.
Greencoat UK Wind raises £125m
Greencoat UK Wind has raised £125m through a sale of shares to repay bank debt, which is £25m more than it planned.
The fund has sold 116.8m new shares at 107p each to new and current investors, which adds to the £260m the London-based company received in its initial public offering in 2013.
Greencoat has invested in 16 onshore and offshore wind farms in the UK with a combined capacity of around 272MW.
Vestas has spent three decades trying to crack China. But, faced with tough competition from local manufacturers, the Danish turbine giant has made only limited progress.
Those local suppliers are no slouches. China Guodian Corporation, Goldwind, Ming Yang and Sinovel are all among the world's top ten turbine manufacturers. It would be tough for Vestas to thrive with only one or two big local rivals, but here it has four.
The difficulty for Vestas is that it has been trying to make an impact by competing at the lower market. This is difficult in a country that has no shortage of cheaply-made turbines.
It’s also why the company announced a change of strategy last week. Chief executive Anders Runevad now plans to introduce its most technologically advanced 2MW turbine in China, which it calls the V110-2.0MW and V100-2.0MW. Its hope is that developers in China will place greater focus on quality than quantity.
There is logic behind this strategy. Changes in wind subsidies in China have shifted to focus on power generation rather than the turbine installation base, something that could help raise quality standards. Even so, it is a big leap. Developers are used to using low-cost, cheap turbines. Changing that thinking will be a big feat.
There is also the question of competition. Chinese manufacturers are used to cut-throat rivalry and, if there is evidence that this strategy is working, domestic manufacturers will undoubtedly respond – improving standards while undercutting on price.
But the biggest risk we see in Vestas’ approach comes back to the thorny question of doing business in China. Namely, how do you protect intellectual property?
Companies in the wind sector are already aware of this issue. Chinese companies have proven that they are not averse to taking innovations from their rivals and turning out their own versions.
Sinovel is in a protracted legal fight with a US firm over just that. It is tough for Vestas to protect its innovations property, and to be able to carve out a larger market share.
And the risk is not just China-centric. If Chinese firms can gain access to the latest and greatest Vestas kit, they could use that knowledge as they grow globally. Make no bones about it. This is a brave and bold approach by Vestas, which is loaded with risk.
But this is not the part of this new strategy. Vestas is also alluding to a move towards a greater reliance on service contracts. Perhaps this is the missing piece of the puzzle?
Chinese firms have become masters at replicating products and kit, but mirroring intangible, service-based work remains steadfastly out of their reach. Vestas management must surely recognise this.
And because of this, while the manufacturing strategy is high risk, it would be naïve to dismiss Vestas’s Chinese plans as pure folly.
Thirty years of doing business in China might – just might – pay off.
Ever tried changing careers? If you have then you’ll know this problem. To get the job you need experience of doing it, but to get that experience you must already be doing that job.
The rationale is simple. It’s difficult to get an employer to take a punt on someone with no track record. The same is true in business, as problems at TAG Energy Solutions show.
More importantly, this situation there highlights exactly why it is so tough to set up a local supply chain in a global market.
Let’s go back to the start.
TAG was set up in 2011 to produce foundations for the offshore wind sector. The UK government wanted to establish a domestic supply chain for offshore wind after finding out that 80% of project capital expenditure for wind farms in UK waters went to European firms. TAG intended to benefit from a promised flood of work.
But that hasn’t happened. TAG has struggled with few orders, and made 74 redundancies in September. More job cuts may follow. The firm has denied it is in administration, but is reportedly working with an insolvency restructuring specialist to work out its future.
TAG’s main problem has been getting developers to choose it over big European players.
Offshore wind farms are huge projects, technically difficult, and developers and investors have a lot of money riding on completing them on time and on budget. Mistakes can be very costly, and those costs can quickly rack up. Developers like to opt for suppliers and contractors that they already know and trust.
With such competition, new entrants like TAG will always find it tough to break through.
Tougher still when developers of wind farms in UK waters have no vested interest in buying from the UK. Yes, you have some UK developers in this market, like Scottish Power and SSE.
But you also have Denmark’s Dong, Sweden’s Vattenfall, France’s EDF, and so on. UK manufacturers have to compete with their rivals from across Europe, and those without a track record, like TAG, will usually find themselves coming up short.
There are ways that governments can encourage the development of local supply chains — but encouraging new firms to set up on the vague promise of future orders isn’t one.
As we’ve noted previously, there are lessons to be learnt from other sectors, and the automotive market is one of them.
Here, overseas firms have led investment in factories. That might not be ideal but it’s an important step in the right direction. It’s also why the commitment by Siemens to set up a new blade factory in Humberside is important.
Sure, it isn’t a UK firm, but it creates UK jobs that help British people learn skills and make vital business connections. With time, those skills and crafts get refined, the business and supply chain develops and a local commitment and base begins to emerge.
Businesses, like job hunters, need a track record. It’s a truth that, sadly, former and current TAG employees are all too familiar with.
Vestas reveals China strategy change
Danish manufacturer Vestas has revealed a new strategy that it hopes will enable it to make inroads into the Chinese market.
The firm, the world's largest turbine manufacturer, said yesterday that it planned to introduce the most advanced versions of its 2MW turbine to China, called the V110-2.0MW and V100-2.0MW. It signals a change of strategy for Vestas, which has struggled to compete with local manufacturers at the low end of the market.
Vestas chief executive Anders Runevad also said that the company would seek to use local manufacturers and suppliers for some of its turbine components; and would also look to launch more tailored service contracts towards customers with specific needs.
EIB agrees €150m loan for Dutch link
The European Investment Bank has agreed a €150m loan to Dutch grid operator TenneT for the Randstad transmission link.
The bank has agreed the deal to finance construction and operation of the 83km transmission connection Randstad 380 kV in western Netherlands. The €150m loan is part of a €450m funding deal
between the EIB and TenneT in 2011.
TenneT said the link is needed to connect planned wind farms in the Dutch North Sea into the onshore grid. The Netherlands wants to develop offshore wind farms with capacity of 3.5GW by 2020.
Starwood to buy 250MW in Ohio
Starwood Energy Group has agreed to buy a 250MW project in US state Ohio for an undisclosed sum.
The company announced yesterday that its investment affiliate had agreed to buy the 250MW Northwest Ohio Wind Project in Van Wert and Paulding Countries from Trishe Resources. Construction on the project started in December 2013; and the first phase, totalling 100MW, is scheduled to be commissioned in late 2015.
Starwood Energy is an affiliate of investment firm Starwood Capital.
Study: ‘Wind could hit 2,000GW by 2030’
Wind could grow to capacity of 2,000GW and supply up to 19% of global electricity by 2030, a new study has reported.
The Global Wind Energy Council made the claim yesterday in its fifth annual ‘Global Wind Energy Outlook’ report, published with charity Greenpeace, but said this figure would only be reached with a strong political commitment towards meeting climate goals.
This is one of three visions for the future of the industry, based on projections from council and the International Energy Agency. The council forecasts that global capacity in 2030 would be 964GW if we relied on current policies; and 1,500GW if only moderate progress is made on increasing support for renewable energy.
EDC secures $315m Philippines loan
Filipino firm Energy Development Corporation has signed a $315m financing agreement for the construction of a 150MW wind farm.
The corporation, part of Filipino conglomerate Lopez Group, has signed a 15-year finance agreement to develop the 150MW Burgos project in Ilocos Norte in the Philippines.
It has agreed the deal with a group of overseas and local financiers; and Danish export credit agency EKF has provided a guarantee for part of the dollar loan component. The developer is seeking to complete the Burgos project by the end of next month.
Sun, sea and sandy beaches. Bournemouth has it all — but it is plans offshore that have recently attracted the greatest interest.
The Planning Inspectorate last week started examining plans for the 970MW Navitus Bay proposed by Eneco and EDF off the UK’s south coast. Yesterday was the deadline for written representations, and the inspectorate is due to close its examination in March. The final planning decision is scheduled for September 2015.
Quite understandably, a plan for what would be the world’s largest offshore wind farm has sparked fierce debate.
None of the arguments here are especially new, focusing on the concerns about visual impact. But we are seeing some big numbers being thrown around. The most interesting — and ludicrous — of them, is a figure of £2.5bn.
That is the amount of compensation that Bournemouth Council is set to seek if Navitus Bay gets the go ahead, according to its head of tourism. The figure is based on an assumption of £100m in lost visitor trade each year and then annualised over 25 years.
But why ludicrous? Simply, because we think the damage that an offshore wind farm could have on tourism in a coastal town 13 miles away is being grossly overstated.
It doesn’t help that the figure is based on spurious maths. It assumes that Bournemouth’s tourism sector was worth £503m in 2013, and that 20% of people surveyed by Eneco and EDF said they would be likely to visit somewhere else during construction.
Now, in isolation, neither of those figures looks wrong. The problem comes because too much has been extrapolated from them.
It seems clear to us that the £2.5bn is inaccurate. Construction is set to take five years, not 25, and this fact alone would adjust the original excitable figure down to £500m. That's £2bn saved.
But even £500m is too high. We just don't see why Bournemouth’s tourism sector would lose £100m a year during construction.
Visitors to the town won’t be confronted with bulldozers on the beach. They won’t be confronted with all that much given that the vast majority of activity will be handled by ports in Poole, Portland and Yarmouth – where, incidentally, jobs will be created.
If anything these jobs will help the local economy.
Let's be clear: Navitus Bay will have no impact on the fundamentals on the attractive seaside town. It doesn't affect the beaches, the ice creams, the sea or the sandcastles. It hasn't put off visitors to the beaches of north Norfolk with views of distant offshore wind farms, and there is no reason to think Bournemouth would be different.
At worst, it might affect the holiday plans of a few turbine-phobes. So what? There are plenty of others who would take their place.
Brits can enjoy a seaside holiday in the wind, the wet, and the cold. They won't be put off by a series of turbine dots on the horizon.
Oil prices are at their lowest level since 2010. This puts pressure on the fossil fuels sector. Time, then, to break open the champagne?
Well, no. While this puts pressure on oil and gas firms share prices and causes headaches for oil-rich nations, it’s not really welcome news for wind, either. A climate of declining energy prices can only make life tougher for renewable energy.
It also rams home the idea that grid parity, though good, is not a sufficiently ambitious aim.
The oil price slump was highlighted this week by the International Energy Agency, which reported that Brent crude fell by almost a quarter since June, from around $115 a barrel then to around $88 a barrel now. This has been driven by a boom in US shale gas, and weaker-than-expected demand from a stuttering global economy.
This is understandably a cause for concern in countries like Saudi Arabia, where the investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud called the lower oil prices “a catastrophe that cannot go unmentioned”. But it should also be up for debate in wind firm boardrooms.
The first problem is that lower oil prices mean tougher competition for wind projects, which must be price competitive. It is all very well that wind farms are, in some parts of the world, cheaper than rival energy sources. And a move to operate without subsidies, and at a point at which grid parity can be achieved, must be encouraged.
But it also shows that the goal to reach grid parity simply isn’t enough. There has to be constant innovation to increase the efficiency of projects, and drive down their cost. This is vital to keep up the pressure on the huge global fossil fuel industry.
And there’s a second big problem. Consistently low oil prices will undermine some of the main arguments currently used to sell wind, particularly offshore wind, to an often sceptical public.
Politicians in the UK, for instance, have thrown their weight behind offshore wind with the justification that high, up-front capital expenditure will protect the UK from rising fossil fuel prices. If that doesn’t happen, it will fuel complaints of political short-sightedness.
Like it or not, the wind sector needs political backing. If politicians take fright about the negative PR then it would hold up projects and delay the industry by half a decade or more. In the UK and Germany where offshore wind is growing, this could spell disaster.
So what can wind do in the face of low oil prices?
Positive PR can help. The campaigns by Dong Energy (“Offshore Wind Works”) and British Wind may get across some of the benefits of wind power and energy independence.
But the best way for the industry to compete is by innovating, to drive greater competitiveness on cost.
Parity isn’t enough. The industry must keep fighting to become more competitive and profitable. Standing on the sidelines while the oil price tumbles simply isn’t an option.
Wind Watch
Wind Watch is published every Monday and Friday.
In the meantime, on behalf of my team, I'd like to invite you to our next Quarterly Drinks, held in association with DNV GL.
The event is on Thursday 6th November from 5.30pm-9.00pmat The Anthologist, 58 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7BB.
At 7.30pm we will conduct an in depth Q&A session with confirmed guest speaker Lucy Heintz, director at private equity firm Actis, on the key barriers and challenges that need to be overcome when investing in emerging markets. Actis is an investor with interests in energy across Africa, Asia and Latin America.
If you've attended before then you'll know the format of the event.
These exclusive networking opportunities enable senior wind energy industry professionals to network with their counterparts working in finance and investment in the City.
There will be complimentary wine, beer, soft drinks and canapés on hand for you to enjoy, throughout the evening.
It looks set to be a great evening!
So remember, RSVP today to guarantee your place....
Building a project is tough. Building an industry is tougher still. That is the challenge for US offshore wind.
Last week, the American Wind Energy Association gathered the great and the good in Atlantic City at Offshore 2014. Discussion
focused on some key themes. How can we fund schemes? How can we ensure that they’re built? But, above all, it served as a reminder to focus on the positives. It was an important pep talk.
In our own discussions, in the past 12 months we too have seen a subtle shift. The focus is on ‘when’ and not ‘if’ anything will happen.
Confidence is growing. And yet, while the 'when' is important, the danger for many is that it misses the point.
Yes, the US will get an offshore wind farm. It may even get a handful in quick succession. That’s great stuff. This would create revenue and jobs. It would tackle growing transmission challenges. And it would provide a demonstrable response to industry sceptics.
What it will not do however is create a US offshore industry. It will have stepped towards it – and it will show that it can be done – but it’s by no means the end game. It's just the end of the beginning.
And remember, right now there is still significant policy uncertainty that could strangle the industry and kill off investor excitement.
The US Department of Energy says there are 14 offshore schemes at varying stages in the planning process, with potential capacity of 4.9GW. Those are interesting numbers. But there are actually only two projects in the race to be America’s first offshore wind farm.
The larger is the 130-turbine 468MW scheme being planned by Cape Wind Associates, a subsidiary of Energy Management Inc., in Nantucket Sound off the Massachusetts coast.
The scheme already has funding commitments of more than $1.2bn from backers including EKF, PensionDanmark and Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi; and is looking to complete project financing this year for a start on construction in 2015. It is a very ambitious project, and it shows there is interest from major financial investors.
Meanwhile, Deepwater Wind’s Block Island project – a 30MW initiative – is the second contender in the running to be be the first to put steel in the water and the competition is to be encouraged.
It’s a fraction of the size of Cape Wind but even so it won its final federal approvals last month, and construction is due to start next summer. It won’t be the biggest but it might be first.
Both schemes demonstrate a promising start. And yet. And yet…
Remember, the US quickly needs a second wave of projects to cement growth in the industry.
That second wave is dependent on tackling the continued uncertainty surrounding the wind production tax credit (PTC) and investment tax credit (ITC). Both expired at the end of last year, and the attempt to extend them has stalled in Congress.
Getting these reinstated would take a concerted lobbying effort from the businesses who stand to benefit from the change.
Now the Offshore Wind Development Coalition has been acquired by, and incorporated into, AWEA that could further cloud the picture. The majority of AWEA members are focused on the US onshore wind debate, and sustaining and protecting its future.
Whether that relegates the needs of offshore wind is a pertinent point. Quite understandably, AWEA has dismissed this concern.
We’ll see. For now, the continued presence of central government support remains critical. Without it, America’s first offshore wind farms may end up getting rather lonely.
Investors like to be ahead of the pack. That is why many go to great lengths to identify the next exciting emerging markets.
But, when it comes to wind, dividing the world into two categories of markets – established and emerging – can be dangerous. The rush to emerging markets may encourage investors to put money into markets that, in our view, look plain silly.
As investor appetite increases, the best-laid plans can quickly unravel since there is a risk that developers can quickly over-commit both time and capital – and as a result, fall short.
This is a challenge that cropped up in discussion at our annual conference, Financing Wind: Profiting from Risk, last week.
Of course, investors are no strangers to the equation of risk and reward. There is inherent risk in every investment, whether at home or abroad. When operating overseas, those risks typically include gaining project consent; tackling the manufacturing versus local content challenge and dealing with transmission delays.
But the risks in some of the new breed of nascent markets look far more complex. We'll get to that.
First, let’s back up a step. The focus on emerging markets is natural. Growth is stalling in many established markets, and high returns in high-risk countries can look very attractive. For many manufacturers, emerging markets will prove equally as important as established markets by the end of this decade.
Just look at the numbers. In real terms, from 2017 to 2019, emerging markets excluding China are set to make up one quarter of new onshore capacity, roughly the same as established markets.
The rest (49%) is set to come from China, according to the latest forecasts from IHS Energy Consulting.
This means we must seek to identify different types of emerging markets. This is something Kasper Dalsten, director of global business development at Vestas, sought to do at our conference.
Under this view, the top tier markets would include power-hungry nations where wind is growing well. Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey all fit this description.
The middle tier markets would be defined as those where wind is taking off but still in its infancy – so Chile, Egypt, Morocco and Uruguay all fit neatly here.
And then there is the lowest tier – the ultra high-risk – that would include those that are superficially most intriguing. The oil-rich states of Kazakhstan, Russia and Saudi Arabia; as well as Pakistan can all be bracketed under this category. For now, at least.
This is a change from the normal discussion about 'established v emerging markets', but it is an important shift.
The risks in these nascent markets are not the standard concerns about changes of political policy. No, some of these states are at the very real risk of war or regime change; or have political systems where laws can change immediately and on a whim.
Developing a strong sense of market dynamics is critical for any investor or developer. For investors in ultra high-risk markets, the challenge is also to get confident understanding the geopolitics.
Investors may choose to take a long-term punt on these markets. They may not. Either way, gaining a better understanding can only help to develop a better picture of the state of the global market.
And that will help savvy investors stay ahead of the pack.
KKR and Acciona form 2.3GW venture
US private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts has completed its €397m purchase of one third of Acciona Energia Internacional.
AEI is the international renewable energy business of Spanish firm Acciona, which retains the other two thirds. The deal, which was completed on Monday, enables KKR and Acciona to create one of the largest operational international renewable energy portfolios.
AEI will now undergo a reorganisation. When complete, it will hold a portfolio of operating renewable assets comprising 2.3GW of mainly wind farms in 14 countries outside Spain. Key markets include the US, Mexico, Australia, Italy, Portugal and South Africa.
Iberdrola hires JP Morgan for US plan
Iberdrola has hired JP Morgan Chase & Co. to help it sell assets worth €2bn in order to fund an acquisition in the US.
Reuters has reported that the Spanish manufacturer is seeking an acquisition target in the US and, to fund the deal, is mulling sales of minority stakes in renewable assets including wind farms. Iberdrola is not expected to make sales without an acquisition target.
Iberdrola has also mandated Morgan Stanley to explore the sale of a minority stake in its Spanish distribution business. Reuters said both Iberdrola and JP Morgan both declined to comment.
Capital Dynamics buys 300MW in Texas
Asset manager Capital Dynamics and Prudential Capital have completed the purchase of the 300MW Green Pastures in Texas.
The wind complex in Baylor and Knox counties is set to be built in two phases of 150MW, with the first phase due to complete in March 2015. Power from the scheme is due to be sold to grid operator, the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas.
Acciona Windpower has started supplying 100 of its AW116/3000 turbines to the scheme. It has also signed a ten-year operations and maintenance deal at the scheme.
UK coalition in pre-election wind split
The Liberal Democrats have blasted their coalition partners in the UK Government for a “pathological aversion to onshore wind”.
Business secretary Vince Cable, part of junior coalition partner the Liberal Democrats, said opposition to onshore wind from coalition partners the Conservatives was hindering the development of the wind industry in the UK. Cable was speaking to a fringe meeting at the Liberal Democrats’ annual conference in Glasgow.
The division over wind policy comes as UK political parties are preparing to start campaigning for the May 2015 general election.
Fishermen’s Energy mulls turbine swap
US firm Fishermen’s Energy is considering switching supplier for its planned 25MW demonstration project off Atlantic City.
The developer was planning to use turbines from China’s XEMC for the offshore scheme, but is now entering talks with European giants Siemens and Vestas. The firm said it is exploring turbine options so it can deliver the best value to people in New Jersey.
Fishermen’s Energy is currently seeking approval for the scheme from New Jersey Public Utilities, which rejected the planned project in March, partly over the choice of XEMC.
Yieldcos may be the new darlings of wind investment, but are they all financially stable?
Richard Nourse, managing director at Greencoat Capital, raised this thorny question at our ‘Financing Wind’conference last week.
His view is there’s a big difference between how the US investment vehicles are structured, versus their European counterparts. This means that, crucially, any future instability in the US market could in turn have a potentially detrimental impact on Europe too.
So why the worry? Primarily because financial yieldco structures in place in the US are not carbon copies of those in Europe. They are very different. And the difference, Nourse believes, lies in the underlying way in which they are financed and underpinned.
To understand this, we first need to take a step back and review the wider market dynamics that are driving them.
Over the past 18 months, energy firms in North America have raised almost $2bn by spinning out yieldcos in initial public offerings. Businesses that have done so include Brookfield, NRG, Pattern Energy and TransAlta.
The idea is simple. Large energy firms set up separate companies to hold working wind farms with long-term power purchase deals. This creates a reliable income for the yieldco investors; and allows utilities and developers to recycle capital from their schemes.
That, according to Nourse, is where the US and UK structures start to differ. The drivers and financial benchmarks behind the growing multitude of European and US funds are fundamentally difference.
In real terms, that means yield accretion becomes the benchmark, rather than value accretion (ie. buying a project a fair value on a discounted cash flow basis and factoring in the cost of capital). This means you're going to get some pretty odd long-term results.
But that is what many of the US funds have been doing and, to cut a long piece of financial mathematics short, it means shareholders are in danger of paying far more than a project is actually worth.
In the US, all of this has resulted in some phenomenal short-term fund growth and some impressive dividends to boot. However, at some stage, that model simply has to an end because there will simply be no further projects worth purchasing.
What then? The fund has over valued its projects and has large financial gap to cover off.
In contrast, European funds have taken a far more low-risk approach. Many simply buy projects, clear any associated project finance and keep the asset firmly on the balance sheet, using a clear-cut debt-equity ratio to fund new purchases. Many also use the value accretion – as opposed to yield accretion – approach.
If more money is needed, this requires fresh fund raising from shareholders, in accordance with whatever limits the fund decides to operate. For Greencoat UK Wind, that’s 40%.
For now, as many investors get caught up in the initial excitement over listed funds, such details may seem trivial. We don't think they are, and neither does Nourse. If the way in which the long-term financial performance and viability of a project is measured is out of step with the reality of what it’s worth, it’s going to cause trouble.
We learnt this to our cost in the sub-prime debacle. Everyone wants to grow their investments —but they also want to sleep at night.
“I do worry about this sector sometimes. We’re very good at setting targets for 2025 or 2030, but let’s talk about this decade.”
So said Nick Gardiner, the recently-appointed managing director of offshore wind at the UK Green Investment Bank and former head of renewables at BNP Paribas, during his keynote speech at our ‘Financing Wind’ conference on Wednesday. And he did just that.
Gardiner talked about the major challenges that offshore wind in Europe has to address before 2020 before looking further ahead.
These include how to cope with 10MW turbines; subsidy regimes; emerging transmission infrastructure; improving reliability; and the changing minds of politicians. These all need answers before we fixate on notional figures for GW by the end of next decade.
But he focused most on the question of how best to fund schemes.
Offshore wind farms are getting bigger, further out to sea, and using larger turbines. All of this means they require more money than ever before — but are also subject to more development risks.
Gardiner said by 2020 he expects significant changes in the way schemes are funded.
The appetite from commercial banks is changing as they do not want significant amounts of debt tied up in offshore wind farms. They will provide funding in the development phase but then sell their interests to institutions that want to own long-term assets.
This is where equity investors come in. Gardiner said there is interest from equity investors such as utilities, manufacturers and other institutions to provide backing to schemes, but he added that a talked-about ‘tidal wave’ of equity investment is yet to emerge.
So how will things look different in 2020?
“Owners will be very different. The tidal wave will have arrived. You will see financials and a number of other companies that want to invest in green,” he said. “By 2020 you will see institutional investors in construction projects but also, given the numbers involved, you are also looking at sovereign wealth funds. The funding market will look very different.”
This sounds very positive. But the challenge for European offshore wind will be how to bring in a wide range of these investors, such as sovereign wealth funds. Abu Dhabi’s Masdar recently invested £525m in the UK’s Dudgeon scheme, but such deals are rare.
One potential solution is focusing on a wider ‘northwest European’ market, not focusing too much on the individual UK, German, French, Dutch and Scandinavian markets.
That, according to Gardiner could be something that would attract new entrants from Asia and the Americas. In turn, that too would help better market and sell the sector’s true potential.
It’s a compelling idea. And crucially, it’s another reminder that as an industry we aren’t just selling offshore wind to a domestic general public – but rather to major global investors. In that respect, showing off a bigger market is better.
Wind Watch
Wind Watch is published every Monday and Friday.
It is easy to see the irony in oil-rich nations investing in wind power. We saw one such high-profile deal last week.
On Wednesday, Abu Dhabi green energy investor Masdar announced it has bought a 35% stake in the 402MW UK offshore wind farm Dudgeon for £525m. It is investing alongside the scheme’s Norwegian development partners Statoil and Statkraft. The announcement has been timed to coincide with a United Nations Climate Change Summit in New York.
But let’s not kid ourselves. This is not the start of a major rush by Middle Eastern investors into the European wind power sector. These investors are much cannier than that.
Let’s take a quick glance at the commercial property sector. In the immediate aftermath of the 2007 credit crunch and 2008 financial crisis there was a feeling that Asian and Middle Eastern investors would buy up vast swathes of European commercial property. It never materialised. These investors would rather focus on investing in a limited number of high-profile assets.
Masdar appears to be using a similar approach in wind.
At Dudgeon, it has invested in a project that is set to be the world’s fourth-largest offshore wind farm, which is due in 2017.
And in its other investment in the UK offshore sector, it bought a 20% stake in the 630MW London Array, which is the world’s largest offshore wind farm. It made this latter investment in October 2008.
Both are high-profile projects in the world’s largest offshore wind market. Both make sense if your strategy is to focus on making a small number of notable investments.
This is borne out with a look at the wind investments made by Masdar since it was formed in 2006.
It has invested in the 117MW Talifa project, which is set to be the first major wind farm in Jordan; is working on a 30MW scheme on Sir Bani Yas island in Abu Dhabi; and backed an initiative to roll out small wind farms on Pacific islands in Samoa. However, it very definitely hasn’t been splurging the cash willy-nilly — and it won’t.
Masdar is the clean energy arm of Mubadala Development Company, which is a wealth fund owned by the Abu Dhabi government. Its aim is to help Abu Dhabi invest its huge oil wealth in schemes that help the economy diversify away from fossil fuels.
Let’s not forget that the Abu Dhabi government’s sovereign wealth fund is the world’s second-largest with assets of $773bn, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute. With assets like that, you may wonder why Masdar hasn’t done more deals since 2006.
But Masdar’s strategy is more nuanced. Its job is to find sensible investments that work commercially and enrich Abu Dhabi.
It has been spreading its risk by putting money into different types of clean energy projects, including solar; has provided backing for clean energy technology firms; and is also working on plans for a green ‘city’ in Abu Dhabi.
In short, sensible investment principles. It will continue to invest in wind, but it won’t be a soft touch.
The bagpipes are silent. The campaign leaflets have been binned. For those who longed for Scotland to become an independent nation, the dream is over. For now, at least.
The independence movement attracted 45% of the vote in last Thursday’s referendum on whether to split from the rest of the United Kingdom. It wasn’t enough, though did force promises from UK prime minister David Cameron to shift more powers to Scotland.
And it’s because of this that the next few months will remain critical for those investors and developers with interests in Scottish wind.
As we know, energy policy was central to the devolution debate, and there will be pressure for the UK to give Scotland greater control over its energy policy in the future.
All the same, the UK government must resist. If it hands across more power then it would pile more energy investment uncertainty onto an already ambiguous situation.
On first look this is counterintuitive. Before the referendum, market commentators warned that a ‘yes’ result would have put projects worth a combined £7.5bn at risk. Now that a ‘no’ vote is confirmed then surely it means that all of these projects can go ahead.
That is true, but we simply cannot ignore how the ripples from the ‘no’ vote will affect wind in the longer term.
The departure of Scottish National Party leader and Scottish first minister Alex Salmond is key. He has announced he will leave in November. When he goes, wind will lose one of its big backers. Salmond championed the ambition for Scotland to generate all its energy from renewable sources by 2020, and such a target helps investor confidence.
The current frontrunner to replace him is Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s deputy first minister. This may bring policy continuity, but any change at the top will force investors to take stock — and potentially direct their funds elsewhere.
If the UK devolves more energy powers to Scotland then it would only add more uncertainty. It would be political folly.
Let’s be clear. The principle that Scotland should receive greater power to determine Scottish issues is sound. The problem is that energy is not simply a Scottish issue.
The energy system in Scotland is tightly intertwined into the rest of the UK. Currency may be one deeply entrenched union but large-scale renewable energy generation is too.
Set in that light, it’s simply not beneficial for Scotland or the rest of the UK to act independently when it comes to wind. The UK needs Scottish wind resource; and Scotland needs the UK for short-term subsidy support and long-term energy export sales.
And despite its best intentions, a joint energy policy between Westminster and Holyrood would fudge the debate, creating yet another bureaucratic barrier. For that, think more red tape.
That’s bad news for business and that’s bad news for attracting international inward investment too.
Global markets should therefore take heed: devolution may open up new territories and increase international energy trading but to think it will by proxy create an energy resource rich independent nation is a step too far. Even for the enigmatic Salmond.
Wind Watch
Who are the most influential people in the wind power sector? We will be revealing all in November — but you can still have your say.
Earlier this month we started research for our annual Top 100 Power People, which is a definitive wind industry who's who.
The concept is simple but it's a herculean task. Using an independent panel of experts and our own market analysis, we'll be ranking nominees based on their industry experience and track record; contacts; leadership; and their financial firepower.
So it's with this in mind, we're asking for your input.
Between now and the end of September, we'll be first finalising the long list — working through all possible candidates and arguing the toss on why they ought to merit a listing. And to ensure that we're taking everyone into consideration, we want your view.
If you have nominations for us to consider then please, drop the team a quick note. We can't promise a response to everyone but we guarantee to read every email nomination you send.
Thousands of wind professionals are set to attend the WindEnergy Hamburg conference in Germany this week. They will spend four days discussing the new trends and innovations.
And we expect some of that chat to focus on a new project just 100km east of Hamburg. It is the size of a school gymnasium. It cost €6m. And it gives us a vision of wind’s future.
Last Wednesday, north German utility Wemag opened what it claims is Europe’s first grid-scale battery plant to help store energy from renewable power sources, including wind.
This is an important development for wind investors as such technology is set to make it easier for them to maximise the value of their wind farms; and enable the wind sector to provide a growing percentage of total energy use in countries all over the world.
It should also quell complaints that wind farms are only useful when the wind blows.
The Wemag facility has a capacity of 5MW and was built by German battery storage firm Younicos. It runs on 35,600 Samsung lithium ion batteries. And it serves an area of 8,600 sq km around the city of Schwerin. These are all impressive numbers.
But the aspects that intrigue us most are those we referred to in the introduction. This plant cost €6m and is the size of a school gym. These make the project look almost humdrum and, seriously, that’s a good thing. This shows battery storage is not an expensive luxury, but something that investors and developers can do now.
The theory is that this means that wind farm operators can store excess energy and sell it to the grid when there is demand.
This helps grid operators to smooth out the peaks and troughs in demand caused by intermittent sources such as wind and solar; and helps the wind farm operators to make money by selling energy that would otherwise be wasted.
We need to see how it works in practice, of course, but irrespective, it is good that the technology is at the stage where that analysis can be carried out.
The Wemag development also sends a message to investors that Germany wants to stay at the forefront of renewable energy innovation. Last month, chancellor Angela Merkel’s government brought in changes to the Renewable Energy Sources Act that are seeking to drive down the cost of wind subsidies. Yes, this imposes tougher rules on wind developers. However, it also sets out a clear path towards a more certain future. The industry has accepted these changes and it’s these details that help satisfy investors.
For remember, Germany intends to source 60% of its energy from renewable mean by 2035. That’s a big jump from the 25% that’s sourced right now and it simply underscores the increasingly critical role that technological innovation simply has to play to achieve this.
If successful, it will help Germany retain pole position within wind, while at the same time having huge ramifications for more mainstream adoption around the world.
Energy storage with grid innovation is imperative. And it may put paid to that old question about what happens when there's no wind.
Armchair investments are all too easy. It is simple to rule out countries or continents in an instant without visiting them.
This is arguably the case in west Africa, which has an image aspolitically unstable and as an emerging hotbed for terrorism. The current Ebola outbreak clearly does not help.
But despite all these difficulties it is good to see some positive investment news.
Earlier this week, Mainstream Renewable Power announced that it has signed a deal with Swiss wind developer NEK Umwelttechnik to buy the 225MW AyitepaWind project on the east coast of Ghana. The project is scheduled to start generating power in early 2016, and is set to require total investment of $525m. It is due to reach financial close next year.
And it is this last aspect that is most interesting. This is not just another large project in an emerging market. This could open up west Africa to major wind investors for the first time.
But, with so many emerging markets out there, what is so interesting about the region?
One potential worry for institutional investors is that projects in Africa are smaller than they are used to. However, to rate a project’s importance in pure monetary terms is to miss a trick. In Ghana, a scheme of 225MW would generate approximately 10% of the country’s total electricity generation capacity.
The AyitepaWind scheme more than holds its own against Africa’s other high-profile wind projects, too. It is not far off the capacity of Kenya’s 310MW Lake Turkana, which is the largest wind farm planned in Africa and where construction is due to start next year. And it is larger than any wind farm currently operational in Africa.
It is also seen as a key project to increase the amount of renewables used in Ghana. The country’s Ministry of Energy & Petroleum said it fully supports the scheme, with all the necessary financial and legal incentives provided through its Renewable Energy Act 2011. In a continent that often attracts attention for instability, such government backing is key.
And then there are the demographics. Two-thirds of sub-Saharan Africans can’t access electricity, a figure that rises to 85% in rural areas. The wind sector therefore has huge potential to provide competitively priced energy for the 1.1billion people in this region.
The value in such projects, therefore, is not just delivered in purely monetary terms. And, with the African wind market still in its early stages, investors are highly reliant on the local knowledge that is needed to make such schemes happen.
That’s why the partnerships that underpin these deals really matter. And that’s why we’re confident that AyitepaWind will go ahead.
NEK Umwelttechnik has had a presence in Ghana for more than 15 years; and Mainstream already has three wind and solar farms operational in South Africa, with three more large wind projects due to go into construction between now and December.
That on-the-ground experience counts. And in turn, provides investors with the confidence to continue to invest.
Slowly but surely, developers are gaining the experience to tell investors the true story of west Africa behind the media headlines.
Wind Watch
Who are the most influential people in the wind power sector? Now is the time to have your say.
This week we have started research for our annual Top 100 Power People, which we will publish in November. The report is a definitive wind industry who's who.
The concept is simple but it's a herculean task. Using an independent panel of experts and our own market analysis, we'll be ranking nominees based on their industry experience and track record; contacts; leadership; and their financial firepower.
So it's with this in mind, we're asking for your support. Between now and the end of September, we'll be first finalising the long list - working through all possible candidates and arguing the toss on why they ought to merit a listing. And to ensure that we're taking everyone into consideration, we want your view.
If you have nominations for us to consider then please, drop the team a quick note. We can't promise a response to everyone but we guarantee to read every email nomination you send.